By Joe Zidle
Institutional-grade investment strategy and asset allocation research, delivered daily.
The January Consumer Confidence uptick signals a mid-cycle recovery consistent with 1995 and 2019 Fed pause analogues, but the divergence between rising sentiment and flat spending creates a fragile equilibrium....
Every economic recovery follows the same script: inflation surges, the Fed tightens, and then everyone waits for inflation to fall back to normal. We're still waiting....
Every housing cycle ends the same way: prices climb until nobody can afford them, sales dry up, and the market freezes. We're not quite there yet, but January's numbers suggest we're getting close....
Jobs that never were... the weak January print (!)... and a Fed that's stuck....
Q4 2025 compensation growth decelerated YoY. The Fed gets the gradual wage moderation it wants, but services inflation will remain sticky....