By Joe Zidle
Institutional-grade investment strategy and asset allocation research, delivered daily.
Layoffs in the tech sector are piling up at the same time hiring stalled. Soon the Unemployment Rate will back up. The question is: how many job losses can the US Economy withstand. What follows is a first principals explainer of the Sahm Indicator....
The January Consumer Confidence uptick signals a mid-cycle recovery consistent with 1995 and 2019 Fed pause analogues, but the divergence between rising sentiment and flat spending creates a fragile equilibrium....
Blending public and privates can improve both risk and return...
Every market cycle develops its own narrative. The prevailing story of 2021-2024 held that inflation was entrenched, that the Fed had fallen behind the curve, and that the bond vigilantes were back, we were told....
The classic Dividend Discount Model and "What-if" analysis. The market isn't cheap......
Prior to QE, the 10YR UST traded at or above nominal GDP 71% of the time. Post QE, it rarely went above nominal GDP. There is a case for the 10YR to again trade at or above nominal GDP again....
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